1.0 Introduction
It is safe to say that the forthcoming 2023 general elections in Nigeria will go down in history as one of the most important elections in not just Nigeria’s history but its democratization process that has been uninterrupted since 1999. The political space of Nigeria has a multi-party outlook but has always been a contestation between two parties; and most recently, it has been between the All-Progressive Congress (APC) with a renowned political strategist and former Governor of Lagos State [Bola Ahmed Tinubu] and the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) with the former Vice President and long-term political gladiator [Atiku Abubakar].
However, the 2023 general elections present a different outlook and possibilities, particularly with the emergence of the much talked about “third force” and possibly “fourth force.” The emergence of Mr. Peter Obi as the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) changed the dimension and expectations around the 2023 elections, with the youths seemingly championing a rebirth of Nigeria through the candidacy of Mr. Peter Obi. While recognizing the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) for making in-roads with Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso; an ideologist of the popular Kwankwasia movement, as the flag bearer. This leaves us with four (4) strong contenders and with a higher stake heading into the elections in 2023, but yet with the most unpredictable dilemma, which experts see as a good development necessary to deepen Nigeria’s democracy.
SmartAfrique R&D Consult Ltd decided to play a significant role in monitoring the activities leading to the elections and rating the choice of the candidates through a three-phased period: before, during, and after the campaigns. This is in a bid to follow the trends and effect of particular periods of the electioneering process on the choice of candidates. The methodology adopted is a simple survey parameter aimed at sampling the opinion of respondents on their choice of candidates who they think should be Nigeria’s President come 2023.
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2.0 Methodology
The survey was conducted in Nigeria. A well-structured questionnaire designed on Google form was administered via social media to elucidate the primary data used for the study. The data collected was analyzed using descriptive statistics.
3.0 Findings of the Survey
3.1 Socio-Demographic Characteristics of Respondents
The result for the socio-demographic characteristics of the respondents showed that about 49.1% of the respondents were within the age bracket of 26 and 35 years, 22.8% were between 36-45 years, while 19.3% of the respondents were between 18-25 years, and less than 10% of the respondents were older than 45 years. Youths, as defined by many scholars in Nigeria, are people between the ages of 17 and 35 years. So, this implies that the majority of the respondents were young people, and it shows that there is a high level of interest among Nigerian youths concerning the conduct and outcome of the forthcoming general elections. Also, majority (71.9%) were males, while most (57.9%) of the respondents were from the North Central geopolitical zone of Nigeria. 15.5%, 14.0%, 8.8%, and 3.5% of the respondents were from the South-East, South-West, South-South, and North-East Nigeria.
3.2 Opinion of Respondents on the Electoral Process in Nigeria
The opinions of respondents were sampled on the electoral process in Nigeria. The result revealed in Figure 1 revealed that 70.2% of the respondents believe that previous elections in the country were badly conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). About 25% of the respondents were not sure if the elections were properly conducted or not. Meanwhile, only about 5% of the respondents were of the opinion that elections had been well conducted by the electoral body. This result implies that a majority of the population believed that previous elections had not been properly conducted and that the electoral body could have done a better job than they did.
Figure 1: Opinion on the Conduct of Election in Nigeria
Source: (Author, 2022)
3.3 Readiness of INEC for General 2023 Elections
Results on Figure 2 revealed that Majority (68.4%) of the respondents to the survey believe that INEC is barely ready for the 2023 elections. 12.3% of them cannot tell whether or not INEC is or will be ready to conduct a free and fair election, while 19.3% of the respondents believe that the commission is ready for the 2023 general elections.
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Figure 2: Readiness of INEC for General 2023 Elections
Source: (Author, 2022)
3.4 Opinion of Respondents on the Contestants
The opinions of respondents were sampled on the most competent candidates for the presidential elections in Nigeria based on their perception. The aspirants included Ahmed Bola Tinubu of the All-Progressive Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP). Results in Figure 3 revealed that about 90% of the respondents believed that Peter Obi was the most competent presidential aspirant, while only 7% and 5.3% of the respondents posited that Atiku Abubakar and Bola Ahmed Tinubu respectively were competent.
Figure 3: Opinion on the Conduct of Election in Nigeria
Source: (Author, 2022)
3.5 Prospective Winner of the 2023 Presidential Election.
The opinions of the respondents were sampled on which of the aspirants would eventually win the presidential election in 2023. Results in Figure 4 revealed that the majority (77.2%) of the respondents opined that the Labour Partys’ Peter Obi would emerge the winner, with APCs’ Bola Ahmed Tinubu and PDPs’ Atiku Abubakar coming in 2nd and 3rd respectively.
Figure 3: Opinion on the Conduct of Election in Nigeria
Source: (Author, 2022)
4.0 Conclusion
Based on the survey, it can be concluded that the Labour Partys’ candidate, Peter Obi, is the leading candidate among the major candidates in the fort coming 2023 general elections in Nigeria. It is assumed that the results may change owing that electioneering campaigns are set to kick start in a few days’ time; hence, the need for subsequent evaluations or repeat surveys to monitor the trends in the electoral process leading to the 2023 general elections in Nigeria.